12 August 2002

Dateline Madrid --

As the Bush administration considers its military options for deposing Saddam Hussein, senior administration and Pentagon officials say they are exploring a new if risky approach: take Baghdad and one or two key command centers and weapons depots first, in hopes of causing a quick collapse of the government.

The "ass-backward" approach, as some call this Baghdad-first option, would capitalize on the American military's ability to strike over long distances, maneuvering forces to envelop a large target. One important aim would be to disrupt Iraq's ability to use of weapons of mass destruction, assuming they have any.

The ass-backward ideas are essentially the reverse of the American strategy in the Persian Gulf war of 1991, which dislodged Hussein's occupying army from Kuwait, except for the part about massive airstrikes.

The aim would be to kill or isolate Hussein and to pre-empt Iraq's use of weapons of mass destruction. "That whole thing about not assassinating the leaders of sovereign nations is so over", one high-level advisor commented.

Persian Gulf states are quietly advocating the quickest and smallest military operation possible, to lessen anti-American protests on their streets. In that sense, the war planning includes the political dimension of persuading reluctant allies to support the operation. To this end, foreign policy experts have developed a new technique which insiders are calling "extortion".

No timetable has been set for military action, and if President Bush decides to go ahead, he will have to make a public, convincing case about why Hussein poses an intolerable threat to the United States and its allies before committing American forces to topple a foreign government that has not attacked the United States.

"The time will come to do all of that," a senior administration official said . "Preferably about twelve hours after the bombers are in the air."

Persian Gulf officials are suggesting that any military action should be the minimum necessary to unseat Saddam Hussein.

"The worst scenario would be a big war by air and land and with lots of bombs and civilian casualties," said a gulf official, "and according to this new ass-backward approach, that's exactly what they're going for."